According to the Ohio Department of Education, “A forecast is somewhat like a painting of the future based upon a snapshot of today. That snapshot, however, will be adjusted and the further into the future the forecast extends, the more likely it is that the projections will deviate from actual experience. A variety of events will ultimately impact the latter years of the forecast, such as state budgets (adopted every two years), tax levies (new/renewal/ replacement), salary increases, or businesses moving in or out of the district. The five-year forecast is viewed as a key management tool and must be updated periodically. In Ohio, most school districts understand how they will manage their finances in the current year. The five-year forecast encourages district management teams to examine future years’ projections and identify when challenges will arise. This then helps district management to be proactive in meeting those challenges. School districts are encouraged to update their forecasts with ODE when events take place that will significantly change their forecast or, at a minimum, when required under statute.

“In a financial forecast, the numbers only tell a small part of the story. For the numbers to be meaningful, the reader must review and consider the Assumptions to the Financial Forecast before drawing conclusions or using the data as a basis for other calculations. The assumptions are very important to understanding the rationale of the numbers, particularly when a significant increase or decrease is reflected.”

Interested readers can find more information about five-year forecasts on the Ohio Department of Education’s website.